The ultimate Rose Bowl preview

Who has the edge and how each should game plan against the other.

The college football world went ballistic when the committee placed one-loss Alabama in the final four instead of undefeated Florida State. Despite the public meltdowns, the committee got it right, albeit by accident. The truth is Jordan Travis’ injury never had anything to do with the price of tea. Even if the Noles’ starting quarterback were as healthy as a horse, it still wouldn’t do a thing to lift their strength of schedule from the basement amongst Power 5 contenders.

While Twitter teems with indignance and FSU ponders litigation, we have the good fortune of previewing the greatest Rose Bowl matchup since no. 3 Georgia outlasted no. 2 Oklahoma, 54-48, six years ago.

Points, however, will be much harder to come by when top-ranked Michigan collides with Alabama (Jan. 1, 5 p.m. EST, ESPN). The over/under currently (and shrewdly) sits at 45. For what it’s worth, both teams are averaging about 30 points per game against opponents that didn’t have to schedule an FCS team in order to be .500 or better. But the points they’ve allowed against said competition is where these clubs diverge: Michigan is surrendering just two touchdowns to Alabama’s three. And the Wolverines’ margin of victory in those games is 17, whereas the Tide’s is just nine.

Since losing to Texas in week 2, Nick Saban and the Tide, although there have been struggles, have found ways to win. The struggles include a three-point win against (4-8) Arkansas, a six-point win against the talented yet almost-always underachieving Texas A&M (bye-bye, Jimbo Fisher), not to mention trailing Tennessee by two touchdowns at the half and needing a 4^th and 31 miracle to avoid the upset against middling Auburn.

Alabama deserves loads of credit for beheading Georgia, 27-24, in the SEC Championship Game, and the committee certainly lavished them with the only kind that matters. That being said, that Georgia defense rated 16^th in the nation, with a composite defensive rating, which weighs each defensive category evenly, of 24^th, very similar to Auburn’s (18^th/33^rd). But Alabama is about to look down the barrel of an altogether different caliber defense come January 1. Pro Football Focus rates the Michigan defense no. 1 in the land, with the no. 3 composite rating. Unlike Bama, Michigan has faced very similarly-rated defenses to what they’ll see, as Keith Jackson would say, “out where the sun goes down.” Alabama brings to Pasadena the no. 2 defense in the country (tied with Penn State’s) and the sixth-best composite, or one spot above that of Ohio State.

How the game could turn

Turnovers are the great equalizer in football, and Bama knows firsthand. Only once did the Tide win comfortably this year having lost the turnover battle in a 14-point comeback win over Tennessee. The other two games were (previously-mentioned) A&M and the 10-point loss to the Longhorns. Had it not been for the plus-three turnover margin it managed in the Iron Bowl, quarterback Jalen Milroe probably isn’t even in a position for fourth quarter heroics. Michigan, meanwhile, is second in the country in turnover margin per game (1.3), or more than twice Alabama’s output (0.6). The Maize and Blue haven’t lost the turnover battle since mid-September, and in the three biggest games of their season – Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa – they were a combined plus-six, or plus-two per game. The SEC Championship Game was an instant classic in its own right, but if it hadn’t been for Georgia surrendering the game’s only turnover, Florida State might very well be standing in Alabama’s cleats.

A question of relevance

The fact Michigan’s three most challenging games to date took place in the last four games of the season is fortunate for us because they’re recent, and recent is relevant. How much exactly, for instance, can we learn from Alabama’s loss to Texas, which took place precisely 100 days ago? A season, on the other hand, can lead to patterns, and we’ve tried to call attention to some of those. But, as far as the Tide are concerned, it would seem the Auburn and Georgia games are the most pertinent.

Yes, Auburn is an in-state rival and it was on the road, but to use either as an excuse to dismiss what otherwise would be takeaways from the Iron Bowl is a leap of logic.

On the bright side, Saban displayed a consistent willingness in that game to throw the ball downfield on any down, with a quarterback with the chops to do it, and it was entirely unpredictable as to when that downfield shot was coming. Subsequently, Michigan will have to be prepared for it on every down, which makes it impossible to sell out against any one aspect of the Alabama offense. It’s the kind of strain on a defense that is truly constant, and Bama has the talent to make you pay should you let up or make a mistake. The scariest thing for Michigan is the defense could 100 percent do its job on first and second down, even force Bama into some third and longs, but that’s absolutely no guarantee it’ll prevent the Tide from converting. Milroe has Steph Curry-type range: see 3^rd and 17 in the first half and 4^th and 31 on the game-winning drive. What’s more is Milroe possesses an immense ability and aptitude to flush the pocket just as it's about to break down, keeps his eyes downfield, and can deliver an accurate ball. Michigan will be receiving a heavy dose of run-pass option all game long.

Defensively, Bama has to commit to stopping Michigan’s run, pressure McCarthy with four, and tempt him to leave the pocket before he really has to, which, if Michigan fans are being honest, they’ll acknowledge he’s been prone to do so from time to time throughout his career. If it plays out that way, Michigan becomes one-dimensional and the defense's job considerably easier.

Michigan should follow suit: send four, and only four. If Michigan elects to drop eight, Milroe will have all day and he will destroy that highly-touted defense whichever way he chooses. Bring five and you may get pressure, but at what cost? Milroe has proven time and again successful at eluding a pass rush. Not all the time mind you – far from it. Only 10 schools in the country are sacked more times per game than the Tide. However, when Milroe escapes, and he will eventually, he has the skillset to make you pay. Michigan’s best approach is to simply bring four, hit home when it can, attempt to keep Milroe in the pocket, spy him always but from varying parts of the field, and force him to make his hay as a pocket passer.

The Auburn game exposed Bama in some ways, especially on defense. The Tigers gashed the SEC champs for some explosives, both on the ground and in the air, gave up a touchdown drive that featured all runs – something Michigan would love and has a history of doing – and the physicality of the defensive backs in run support was revealed to at least be a concern. And if Auburn’s 5-foot-11, 209-pound tailback Damari Alston can drag 210-pound Jaylen Key for three yards into the end zone, you better believe 5-foot-8, 213-pound Blake Corum can do the same.

As for Alabama’s defensive backs, it’s well-documented; they’re very good, but they’re not shut-down good, nor are they incapable of mental errors. The Iron Bowl showed even basic attempts at offensive creativity can lead to mistakes in all three levels of Alabama’s defense. Pre-snap motion and play action gave the defense fits at times and led to some big plays, but fewer than there would have been had Michigan State-transfer quarterback Payton Thorne been able to make, not great, but routine throws. Thorne finished the day an abysmal 5 of 16 for 91 yards. If Michigan has McCarthy throw it 16 times or fewer, you can bet the Michigan backfield is having a field day, the offensive line is controlling the line of scrimmage and therefore the game, and that McCarthy will have a whole lot more than 91 yards. Thorne was, however, effective on the ground (15 carries, 57 yards). If December allowed Michigan’s signal caller to heal up and be a threat in the running game, the Wolverine offense becomes truly dynamic. Thorne’s average yards per carry in that game was 3.8, or precisely what McCarthy has averaged in two years as the starter.

Soft in the middle

As a team, Auburn averaged nearly six yards a carry, using both pulling guards and tight ends, which just happens to be Michigan’s bread and butter. If there’s a weak spot on Alabama’s defense, it would be the interior defensive line and at linebacker, which Pro Football Focus bears out.

The Crimson Tide only have three defensive tackles with a qualifying number of snaps (196) and they rank 278^th, 361^st, and 515^th in all of college football. Michigan, in contrast, has nearly twice as many, all of which rank higher, and four of them – Mason Graham (10^th), Kenneth Grant (44^th), Kris Jenkins (61^st), and Cam Goode (71^st) – are top-75 in the nation. The incredible depth that Michigan enjoys along the defensive front is the primary reason for the entire unit’s success, and Michigan is confident it will play a major factor. Don’t be surprised if Saban attempts to play fast and/or refuses to sub in an effort to stymie what is a clear advantage for Michigan.

Both schools have three linebackers with at least 250 snaps, but Bama’s highest-graded linebacker ranks 279^th. All three of Michigan’s rank higher, and two of them – Michael Barrett (3^rd) and Junior Colson (60^th) – are in the top 60.

The fact is, despite the success the Tigers had on the ground, Auburn’s tailbacks left huge chunks of yardage behind that were there for the taking had they only used their blockers, stayed within the offense, and looked for cutback lanes up the middle. Michigan’s second-string tailback, Donovan Edwards, has made similar type mistakes all year long and is the reason he’s suffered a major drop-off in production. Corum, on the other hand, does not make that mistake. If there are yards to be had, he finds them.

Stylistically, Alabama’s defense isn’t altogether different from Michigan’s – a bend-but-don’t-break that forces you to go the long way. But that, too, plays into Michigan’s hand. Michigan doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel to punch its ticket to the national championship. Given Bama’s weaknesses up the middle, the Wolverines can commit to doing what they already want to do and force Bama to play their kind of game. In order to counter what Michigan will undoubtedly try, Saban is going to have to rely on more guys up the middle than he’s accustomed to. Keep an eye on defensive tackle no. 44 Damon Payne, the 303-pounder out of Belleville, Michigan. The four-star has been used sparingly thus far but has shown flashes of greatness. If Bama is looking to get more from its interior, and it needs to, Payne could be that guy.

Despite what many say (on both sides), neither team has a clear advantage at quarterback. Both are quite similar in their style of play and can suffer from the same sort of pitfalls, whether it’s questionable decision-making, or staring down a receiver. Neither quarterback will play perfect in the Rose Bowl; the defenses are too good. If the biggest game of the year to date for both quarterbacks, the SEC Championship Game for Milroe and The Game for McCarthy, is any indication, both quarterbacks are about to experience a drop-off in performance. Milroe, the fourth-highest rated passer in college football (177.5), was rated 22.2 points lower against Georgia. But, although McCarthy, who’s rated just two spots behind Milroe (170.3), did not perform up to standard, his drop-off was the least egregious of the four quarterbacks in those games (minus-11.6).

Go for the gusto

The Seminoles would be the ones taking on Michigan in two weeks had Auburn’s coaching staff not gone conservative in the fourth quarter. The Tigers had three opportunities to close things out and failed each time. As dreadful as the muffed punt was, it was the decision to kick a field goal rather than attempt to deliver the dagger that should stand out to Michigan. Yes, the Wolverines put on a master class a month ago in how to effectively be conservative and suffocate an opponent in the 24-15 win over Penn State -- see 32 straight runs and no passes in the second half in a nine-point win -- but Alabama's offense (11th) rates much better than the Nittany Lions’ (26th) and always poses a serious threat for the big play. Doesn't mean Michigan should throw caution to the wind and completely reinvent itself for this game. Far from it. Stylistically, this matchup favors Michigan and it could absolutely have success employing what it loves to most — a punishing, persistent ground attack that wears a defense down over four quarters. But the last thing the Wolverines want to do is give Milroe and company the ball late in a one-score game with a chance to win. They got away with it against Kyle McCord and the Buckeyes, but I wouldn't tempt fate.

Is Alabama a juggernaut this year? No, it’s not. It’s extremely talented and well coached, but there’s a reason Vegas has kept Michigan as a 2-point favorite, despite Bama carrying 80 percent of the moneyline. The only entity that hates losing more than Saban and Jim Harbaugh is Vegas, and it doesn’t seem alarmed at the imbalance, and that should probably tell us something.

This has instant classic written all over it – two heavyweights that are likely to trade blows throughout the evening and into the night. At the end of the day, this Michigan team is hungry, and hungry dogs hunt best. If a gun’s to my head and I’m picking a score, I’ll take Michigan 24, Alabama 21. Enjoy this one. It should be a doozy.

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